Project Utabiri · public preview

utabiri

Kenya-first prediction market — political outcomes, sports spreads and fast-resolving local markets, priced by an automated market maker, paid with M-Pesa, shared on WhatsApp/Telegram. Everything below is placeholder UI for the play-money beta.

Mobile app — the five screens

Telegram Mini App + PWA. Scroll sideways through the flow: feed → market → portfolio → wallet → share card.

1 · SOKOMarket feedCategories, live % + decimal odds, volume.

🎯 Beta ya pointi — Utabiri Points only, hakuna pesa halisi bado

Zote Siasa Michezo Uchumi Burudani

SIASA · RESOLVES AUG 2027

2 · MARKETDetail + bet slipChart, NDIYO/HAPANA slip, payout calc, source + rules.

← Soko

SIASA · MARKET #001

Will Ruto win the 2027 presidential election?

Chanzo cha matokeo: IEBC official declaration · resolves by 24 Aug 2027 · dispute window 48h

34%NDIYO 66%HAPANA

show as: % / odds

Weka utabiri wako

Ukishinda unapataUP 1,441

Bei ya sasa (incl. ~4% spread)34.7¢ / share

Weka Utabiri →

Unaweza ku-cash-out wakati wowote kabla ya matokeo

Sheria za soko: Resolves NDIYO if the IEBC declares William Ruto president-elect in the 2027 general election (including any run-off). Court-annulled & re-run → follows the final valid declaration. Market suspends on election day per GRA direction.

📊Soko 💼Portfolio 👛Wallet

3 · PORTFOLIOPositions + cash-outLive P&L, one-tap cash-out, resolved history.

Positions zako

Open value UP 1,730 · unrealized +UP 156 (+9.9%)

Cash out UP 545

Ruto wins 2027 — NDIYO

500 UP @ 31% → now 34% · +9.7%

Cash out UP 610

Arsenal wins EPL by 3+ — NO

600 UP @ 74% → now 78% · +5.4%

Cash out UP 505

Petrol > KES 190/L Oct — NDIYO

550 UP @ 59% → now 57% · −3.4%

Zilizotatuliwa

Kasarani by-election: UDA holds seat — NDIYO ✓

Resolved 22 Aug · source: IEBC · WON +UP 180

CBK cuts rate in August — NDIYO ✗

Resolved 12 Aug · source: CBK MPC statement · LOST −UP 250

📊Soko 💼Portfolio 👛Wallet

4 · WALLETPlay-money nowM-Pesa previews with 5%/5% taxes shown honestly.

Salio lako (beta)

UP 12,450

Utabiri Points — weekly top-up + leaderboard prizes. Hakuna pesa halisi kwenye beta.

LICENCE-GATED

Deposit via M-Pesa (preview)

KES

Excise duty 5% (KRA, on deposit)−25

Inaingia kwenye walletKES 475

LICENCE-GATED

Withdraw to M-Pesa (preview)

UnatoaKES 1,000

Withholding tax 5% (KRA, on withdrawal)−50

M-Pesa inapokea (B2C, ~30s)KES 950

Taxes shown upfront, kila mara — hakuna surprises.

Transactions

Cash-out · Kasarani by-election+UP 680

Weka · Ruto 2027 NDIYO−UP 500

Weekly top-up+UP 1,000

Won · UDA holds seat+UP 180

📊Soko 💼Portfolio 👛Wallet

5 · SHARE CARDThe growth loopLive-odds card built for the WhatsApp forward.

SIASA · UTABIRI WA LEO · 01 SEP 2026

Ruto kushinda urais 2027?

34%NDIYO · ▲ +2 leo

66%HAPANA

utabiri utabiri.co.ke/m/ruto-2027 →

Web version

Desktop layout — feed, market and bet slip on one screen. The web app is the canonical surface (and the MVP Ro raises on).

utabiri.co.ke/m/ruto-2027

utabiri

Zote Siasa Michezo Uchumi Burudani

UP 12,450

SIASA · MARKET #001 · UP 4.2M TRADED

Will Ruto win the 2027 presidential election?

Chanzo cha matokeo: IEBC official declaration · resolves by 24 Aug 2027 · dispute window 48h · resolution log

34%NDIYO · 2.94 66%HAPANA · 1.52

Sheria za soko: Resolves NDIYO if the IEBC declares William Ruto president-elect in the 2027 general election (including any run-off). Market suspends on election day per GRA direction.

Weka utabiri wako

Ukishinda unapataUP 1,441

Bei (incl. ~4% spread)34.7¢

Weka Utabiri →

Cash-out wakati wowote kabla ya matokeo

MVP architecture

One TypeScript monolith, four modules, one Postgres. Play-money first — the flip to real KES swaps the wallet's funding source, not the architecture. Dashed = licence-gated or phase 2.

Every client speaks to one gateway; four modules share one Postgres. M-Pesa integration is legally gated on the GRA licence — the play-money beta runs the identical stack without it.

Backend: TypeScriptNodeFastify / NestJSdecimal.js for LMSR
Data: PostgreSQL (managed)Redis
Frontend: ReactViteTailwind@telegram-apps SDKone codebase, two surfaces
Payments: Daraja STK Push + B2CIntaSend / Flutterwave (faster start)Airtel Money later
KYC: Smile ID
Messaging: Telegram Bot APIWhatsApp Cloud APIAfrica's Talking SMS
Infra: AWS af-south-1DockerCloudflareSentry

Build sequence · 8–10 weeks to the beta

W1–2Money core

Ledger, wallet, tax engine; Daraja in sandbox only

W3–4Trading engine

LMSR, positions, cash-out, admin market creation

W5–6Clients

PWA + Telegram Mini App from one React codebase

W7–8Trust

KYC, limits, resolution console, public log, audit

W9–10Growth loop

Share cards, WhatsApp bot, 5–10 launch markets

Competitive landscape — Africa

Nobody in Africa combines a licence-first path, M-Pesa, live tradeable prices and transparent resolution. That combination is the differentiation.

	Utabiri (planned)	5050Markets 🇰🇪	Bayse / ex-Gowagr 🇳🇬	Luno predictions 🇳🇬🇿🇦	SportPesa / Betika 🇰🇪
Licence status	✓ GRA licence-first (play-money until licensed)	unclear / none visible	✗ listed illegal by Lagos regulator	crypto product, avoids gambling law	✓ licensed bookmakers
Politics markets	✓ core product (2027 cycle)	✓	✓	✗ crypto prices only	✗ sports only
M-Pesa native	✓ STK Push + B2C	✓	✗ bank transfer + USDT	✗	✓
Live tradeable prices	✓ AMM — always a price, any size	limited, thin	P2P matching (needs counterparty)	fixed binary payout	✗ fixed odds, house-set
Cash-out before resolution	✓ sell back anytime	unclear	✓ early exit	✗	partial (some sports)
Public resolution rules + log	✓ pre-declared sources, dispute window	✗ undocumented	disputed (manipulation allegation)	✓ price feeds (automatic)	n/a (scores)
Taxes shown upfront	✓ 5%/5% displayed on every flow	✗	✗	✗	✗ buried in odds
Telegram Mini App + share cards	✓ the distribution strategy	✗	✗	✗	SMS/USSD heritage
Partner / odds API	✓ phase 2 → telcos, betting platforms	✗	✗	✗	closed

Global benchmark

The playbook proven elsewhere, localized: every global CLOB needed paid market makers — a cold-start Kenyan market needs an AMM, mobile money and bookmaker-familiar pricing.

	Utabiri (planned)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Betfair Exchange	Manifold
Mechanism	LMSR AMM, house-seeded (built for cold start)	CLOB + paid MMs (20% rebates)	CLOB + Susquehanna + subsidies	P2P odds exchange	CPMM + limit orders
Money rail	KES via M-Pesa (stablecoins phase 2)	USDC on Polygon	USD bank/debit	fiat wallets	play money
Regulation	Kenya GRA bookmaker path	offshore + US CFTC DCM (QCX)	CFTC DCM, fighting 20+ states	gambling licences	none needed
Africa access	✓ built for Kenya	gray-market via crypto	✗ geo-blocked	✗ no mobile money	play only
Min stake	KES 20 (~$0.15)	~$1	$1 contracts	~£1–2	free
Fees	~4% spread + commission on winnings	taker fees (~1–1.75%/share)	0.07·P·(1−P) taker	2–5% on net winnings	none
Distribution	WhatsApp/Telegram forwards + telco API	social embeds, API bots	Robinhood / Webull order flow	pro traders, API	community

Utabiri column reflects the MVP plan, not a live product. Competitor facts compiled Sep 2026 from public sources.

Placeholder screens & architecture, Sep 2026 · single-page preview · individual screens: feed · market · portfolio · wallet · share card · web

utabiri

Mobile app — the five screens

Will Ruto win the 2027 presidential election?

Will the United Opposition field a single candidate?

Arsenal wins the Premier League by 3+ points?

Petrol (Nairobi) above KES 190/L in October EPRA review?

CBK holds the base rate at the October MPC meeting?

Will Ruto win the 2027 presidential election?

Weka utabiri wako

Positions zako

Ruto wins 2027 — NDIYO

Arsenal wins EPL by 3+ — NO

Petrol > KES 190/L Oct — NDIYO

Zilizotatuliwa

Kasarani by-election: UDA holds seat — NDIYO ✓

CBK cuts rate in August — NDIYO ✗

Salio lako (beta)

Deposit via M-Pesa (preview)

Withdraw to M-Pesa (preview)

Transactions

Ruto kushinda urais 2027?

Web version

Will Ruto win the 2027 presidential election?

Weka utabiri wako

MVP architecture

Build sequence · 8–10 weeks to the beta

Competitive landscape — Africa

Global benchmark